Last week, we explained that the National Mortgage Settlement gave banks a roadmap showing them how to proceed with the backlog of foreclosures (known as shadow inventory) that has been hanging over the housing market for more than a year. We believe that understanding this dynamic is crucial in determining home prices as we go through the year. We believe the number of houses sold will grow somewhat dramatically in 2012. However, the increase in demand will be offset by an increase in supply of distressed properties that sell at a discount.

Others also feel there will be an increase in foreclosures as we move through the year.

Calculated Risk

“It does appear the number of completed foreclosures will increase following this settlement – especially in some judicial states with large backlogs – so there will probably be more REOs (lender Real Estate Owned) for sale.”

Brandon Moore, chief executive of RealtyTrac

“The settlement sets forth clear guidelines for lenders and servicers to follow when foreclosing, which should allow them to push through some of the delayed foreclosures from last year.”

Susan Wachter, professor of real estate and finance, University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School

“There remains a danger that ‘a wave of foreclosures’ may destabilize the housing market. The logjam has to be unleashed – [the settlement] will do that.”

Mark Zandi, chief economist Moody’s Analytics

“I think there’ll be more price weakness, because we’ll see the number of distressed sales pick up. But I think the price declines will be modest.”

What does ‘modest’ mean? Celia Chen, Moody’s Analytics suggests:

 “The latest settlement will hasten the pace of filings and push up the distress sale share of total sales over the next several quarters, driving national house prices down another 3%.”

Bottom Line

The increase in supply will cause prices to soften even though we will see an increase in demand. Check with a real estate professional to help you understand how this will impact your local market.

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People are delaying the decision to buy a home because they are not sure where prices are headed. If they buy and prices continue to soften, they feel that they will not have purchased at the optimal moment. They reason that, if they sit and wait, they can’t be hurt. This thinking assumes that a non-decision comes without consequence.

The normal retort to this thinking by people bullish on real estate is that prices may soon turn to the positive or that interest rates will start heading upward. Buy now before the cost of buying increases! Today, we want to look at this from a different angle. We want to alert our readers that their housing expense is about to increase if they continue to rent.

Currently, in most parts of the country, buying is less expensive than renting. Plus, purchasers can lock in their housing expense for the next thirty years by buying now. They will get a sensational price and a record low interest rate. What will happen if they continue to rent?

The Alternative to Buying

If a family continues to rent, they are looking at a housing expense which will rise with the market. Rental costs increase by 3% a year historically. But today’s rental market favors the landlord to a greater degree. Below is a graph of how rental prices have increased recently and where they are projected to go over the next few years based on a report from Marcus & Millichap.

Bottom Line

Hoping to save by delaying the purchase of a home may result in higher housing costs while you’re waiting, thus achieving the exact opposite result. Check with a local real estate professional to determine the best option for you and your family.

Given that it’s Superbowl Week (Go Giants!), I thought we might go with a football theme today. I can’t tell you how many different people I hear proclaim that they are the quarterback of the real estate transaction – the agent, the loan officer, an attorney, accountant or financial planner. But for goodness sake, the buyer/borrower had better be the one calling the shots. Not that everyone else doesn’t play an important role, but the buyer/borrower is the one most impacted by the choices made.

Here’s my opinion of how the team works best:

• Head Coach (Your Loan Officer) – Your loan officer should be the Head Coach. After careful analysis of your income, credit and assets, this is the person in the best position to make sure you are playing to your strengths and minimizing your weaknesses.  Your loan officer can discuss the economic realities of homeownership, while listening to your quality of life concerns. (How often you’ll be able to eat out or vacation, for example.) The loan officer can set up the game plan.
• Offensive Coordinator (Your Real Estate Agent) – Your real estate agent is your offensive coordinator. Armed with the game plan (which includes your limitations), the agent calls the plays, counseling you on the geography, the competition, the best ways to negotiate your way to your personal touchdown. Agents know the playing field (the inventory and the market). If you hire them to represent you, they can disclose the weaknesses of your competition (the seller).
• Offensive Line (Your Attorney, Accountant and Financial Advisors) – Your attorney, accountant and financial advisors are your offensive line. They are there to protect you from the blitzes that come from outside (sellers, title issues, tax consequences, and protecting your assets). Not the glamour positions, but vital to any success you are going to have.
• Running Backs and Wide Receivers (Your Friends and Family) – Your friends and family are the running backs and wide receivers. They often receive the glory and attention, but honestly, if everyone else doesn’t do their job, they rarely ever see success. Bad game plans, weak play calling, poor execution on the offensive line or by you, as quarterback, leave them merely as names on the roster.

As with any team, communication is the most important component to getting the desired results. Being the center of the action on the field, the quarterback (you) needs to honestly talk with your coaches and coordinators, so they can help direct you on the proper play calling. Simultaneously, you need to heed the feedback from your offensive line, running backs, and receivers to filter wise advice from emotion. Be the quarterback of your own home-buying process and you’ll be more likely to realize your dreams (and not the dreams of someone else).

We have reported that almost six million adults between the ages of 25 to 34 are currently living with their parents. That number reflects an almost 50% increase since 2003. These young adults are now being advised to jump into homeownership.

Who are the people selling them on the American Dream? Their parents! It seems that parents of some adult children are strongly suggesting that their children take advantage of the low cost of homeownership available today. Some moms and dads are helping financially and are even co-signing for the mortgage. Middle age parents who have owned a home understand its true value. A home has always been a good long term financial investment. However, homeownership also has many other benefits.

In Fannie Mae’s most recent National Housing Survey, they asked the question directly: Is this a major reason to buy a home?

The study broke up the answers into financial and non-financial reasons. The top four reasons and six of the top ten reasons were NON-FINANCIAL. The top four are below:

1. It means having a good place to raise children and provide a good education.
2. You have a physical structure where you and your family feel safe.
3. It allows you to have more space for your family.
4. It gives you control over what you do with your living space (renovations & updates).

Should this surprise us? Aren’t these the same reasons our parents bought their home? Aren’t these the same reasons we purchased our home? These are the same reasons parents have suggested their children buy a home. They want the same things for their grandchildren that they believed to be important for their children.

And today, the cost of homeownership is at all time lows:

J.P. Morgan

“The numbers on housing have an important message for American families today, and particularly younger families setting out on life’s great adventure: Five years ago, at the peak of the home-buying euphoria, it was emphatically a time to rent. Today, when home ownership is depreciated more than ever before, the numbers tell us it is a time to buy.”

MSNBC.com

“[S]omeone who plans on staying put for seven years would come out ahead by about $9,000 if they bought a median-priced home rather than being a tenant in a median-priced rental.”

HUD

“Homes today are more affordable for average families than they have been since 1971. Median-income families today have nearly double the funds needed to purchase the average home.”

Bottom Line

Now that the economy is beginning to show signs of stabilizing, people are getting back to the core values that families have always embraced. Homeownership is definitely high on that list. And today, from a financial standpoint, it may be the opportunity of a lifetime.

Warren Buffet is seen by many as the greatest investor of our time. When he speaks, people listen. Like anyone else in his position of influence, he is criticized by some for using his bullhorn to promote his own business agendas at times. That makes it very interesting when we occasionally learn of how he privately advises those closest to him.

Such a situation occurred this week. Debbie Bosanek, Warren Buffet’s secretary of 37 years, recently purchased a second home in Surprise, Arizona.

In an article in the Omaha World Herald, Mrs. Bosanek discussed her reasons for purchasing a second home and the personal advice she received from Mr. Buffet.

“I just thought it was time to buy a home. Warren tells me that it will be the best opportunity in my lifetime. Mortgage rates are low and prices have dropped dramatically…I share Warren’s view about the future of America, and we believe that our country will do just fine. I’m happy to make this investment.”

The greatest investor of the last century privately has told the people closest to him that buying a home right now “will be the best opportunity in [their] lifetime”.

That’s good enough for us. How about you?