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KCM: The Power of Assumability

The KCM Blog: The Power of Assumability


The Power of Assumability

Posted: 12 Jan 2012 04:00 AM PST


One of the rarely touted advantages of people taking FHA mortgages today is the fact that they are assumable. What that means is, when the FHA homebuyer of today is looking to sell his home, a qualified purchaser can “take over” their loan.

Most people believe that interest rates will return to a “normal” range (between 6.5% and 7%) in a couple of years. When you assume a mortgage, the terms remain the same. This means that a buyer five years from now can enjoy a 4 – 4.5% mortgage by assumption rather than the 6.5% – 7% mortgage they would get without it. Since most people buy homes based on how the monthly payment fits into their personal monthly budget, this is extremely impactful.

As an example, a $300,000 loan at 4% today carries with it a $1,432.25 principal and interest payment on a 30 year fixed mortgage. If offered for sale in five years, the purchaser could assume the $271,858.56 balance with the same $1,432.25 payment and remaining term of 25 years. The total payments over the 25 years would be $429,675.

Compare that to a new $272,000 loan at 6.5% for 25 years, which would carry a monthly payment of $1,836.56 (over $400 more a month than the assumption and more than $120,000 more over the 25 year term).

At 6.5% for 25 years, to wind up with the same payment as the assumed mortgage, our borrowers would only be getting $212,000…$60,000 LESS!

 

The point here is that, when rates go up, homes with assumable mortgages will have more value and will sell at higher prices because they are more affordable. As an additional bonus, the closing costs on assumable mortgages are significantly less (especially here in New York where NYS Mortgage Tax is such a large component of closing costs).

The borrowers must be credit-worthy of course (have good credit, qualifying income, and necessary assets to close), but they would have to be credit-worthy to get a new mortgage too!

Besides the multiple other reasons to obtain an FHA mortgage (low down payment requirements, extended income ratios, lower credit scores, and easier sourcing of funds), there is another perk. In the future, there is a good chance that you may be able to sell your home for more money because of the FHA loan’s assumability.

 

 

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KCM: People Are Buying Homes AND GETTING MORTGAGES!

The KCM Blog: People Are Buying Homes AND GETTING MORTGAGES!


People Are Buying Homes AND GETTING MORTGAGES!

Posted: 11 Jan 2012 04:00 AM PST

Many believe that very few houses are selling and that almost no one can get a mortgage. We want to let everyone know that neither of these assumptions is true. Recently, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their Existing Homes Sales Report. According to the report there are, on average, 12,109 homes selling in the United States EACH and EVERY DAY! That means that approximately 12,000 houses sold yesterday, approximately 12,000 will sell today and approximately 12,000 will sell tomorrow. So the thinking that homes aren’t selling just isn’t true.

Another interesting fact in the report was that 72% of these transactions were accompanied by a mortgage. That means that approximately 8,719 people qualify for a mortgage on a daily basis in this country.

There are over 12,000 homes sold and over 8,000 mortgages granted every day. The real estate market is doing better than many believe.

 

 

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Minneapolis Area Real Estate Stats. Week ended 12/31/2011 at a glance

             

 

 

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KCM : When the Prophet Says Buy – BUY!

The KCM Blog: When the Prophet Says Buy – BUY!


When the Prophet Says Buy – BUY!

Posted: 09 Jan 2012 04:00 AM PST

John R. Talbott, previously a Goldman Sachs investment banker, is a bestselling author and economic consultant. When it comes to the housing market he is also a prophet. When housing prices started to skyrocket in 2003, he published The Coming Crash in the Housing Market correctly warning us that a real estate bubble was forming. Then in January 2006, he called the absolute peak of home prices in the US by releasing a new book, Sell Now! The End of the Housing Bubble.

Mr. Talbott, the person who accurately predicted the housing bubble and its bust, now has a new prediction – IT IS THE TIME TO BUY A HOME! In a recent article, Homes – Buy Now!, Talbott simply explains:

“I have been waiting for more than five years to offer this advice. It is now time in most cities across the country to buy a new home or refinance your existing home with thirty-year fixed rate mortgage debt.”

He goes on to explain that his conclusion is based on four different metrics, all of which favor buying today:

  • Home Prices Relative to Peak Prices During the Bubble
  • Home Prices Relative to Construction Costs or Replacement Costs
  • Home Prices Relative to Incomes and Rents
  • Home Prices in Real Terms, Not US Dollar Terms

Bottom Line

If the person who called the real estate bubble and its bust says now is the time to buy, we believe it is time to buy.

 

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KCM: Mortgage Predictions for 2012

The KCM Blog: Mortgage Predictions for 2012


Mortgage Predictions for 2012

Posted: 05 Jan 2012 04:00 AM PST

It’s the time of year that we look ahead and attempt to give our best guesses about the market, the industry, and the effects they may have. So, here are my thoughts about the mortgage world:

Interest Rates Should Be Stable

With a faltering economy nationally and worldwide, including pessimistic estimates for employment, there is little chance that the Fed will risk increasing rates which would jeopardize any recovery. Couple that with a Presidential Election in November and conventional wisdom says we’ll see rates hovering in the same neighborhood for most of 2012.

Mortgage Costs Will Increase

Quietly tucked away in those bills passed in Congress to extend the payroll tax cuts before the holidays was an increase of 10 basis points in the guarantee fees on loans sold to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. That will translate into .10% higher interest rates (which would be $4000 extra on a $200,000 loan over 30 years). Interestingly enough, the additional revenue is not going to Fannie or Freddie to help with defaulted loans, but rather going to the US Treasury to make up for the payroll tax cut….go figure.

The Mortgage Interest Deduction Will Be Challenged

Look for people of a certain income level to lose their write off as a measure to increase revenue. Taking away from the wealthy as a way to raise governmental revenue is politically strategic. It is unlikely everyone will lose the deduction (political suicide), but that top 1%…watch out.

Loan Products Will Expand

Common sense lending will start creeping back. Large down payments will liberalize credit and income standards. This will likely begin with local banks who are comfortable with appraised values. I’m not calling for a return to the madness, but some loans that are low risk are not being done today. Anticipate some lenders expanding their guidelines.

Don’t be shocked by a lowering of FHA loan limits and/or an increase in the FHA Up Front Mortgage Insurance Premium either. Overall, mortgages should give people more reasons to buy homes in 2012 as the economic recovery is strongly tied to housing. Given that most people vote their own personal economy rather than policy beliefs, I expect support by those who are looking to be re-elected.

 

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Minneapolis Area Real Estate week ending 12/24/11 at a glance

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Bryn Mawr 2011 Market at a Glance!

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Tangle Town Yearly Stats 2011

 


 

 

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KCM: 5 Top Real Estate Stories in 2011

The KCM Blog: 5 Top Real Estate Stories in 2011


5 Top Real Estate Stories in 2011

Posted: 02 Jan 2012 04:00 AM PST

In 2011, we experienced one of the most volatile housing markets in American real estate history. Things we never anticipated happened. Events we were sure would take place didn’t. Today, we want to review the five headlines we think had the biggest impact in 2011.

1.) Interest Rates remained at historic lows

In order to help stabilize the economy in 2010, the Fed took certain actions which kept mortgage rates at or near historic lows (approximately 4%). Most felt this would be a short term tactic and once abandoned would result in rates returning to long term averages (6-7%).

However, the government has continued to support lower rates with the hope of fostering a recovery in the housing sector. The 30 year fixed rate mortgage (as measured by Freddie Mac) stood at 4.77% to begin 2011. A month later, it was over 5% and many, including us, believed this was the beginning of rates returning to normal levels. Instead, rates continued to fall ending 2011 at 3.91%.

The lower rates along with great prices have had a favorable impact on home affordability leading more buyers to enter the market.

2.) Sales up over 2010

At the beginning of 2011, we all realized that a year-over-year (Y-O-Y) comparison of home sales would not be a true “apples to apples” comparison as home sales at the beginning of 2010 were bolstered by the Home Buyers Tax Credit. Likewise, comparing home sales over the summer would not be a fair comparison as many sales in 2010 were dragged forward so that buyers could take advantage of the credit. However, many thought Y-O-Y comparisons would again be useful later in 2011 as the impact of the 2010 tax credit waned. Yet, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) Existing Homes Sales Report shows that over the last three months sales have increased quite nicely. The October and November reports each showed a Y-O-Y gain of in double digits and the December report gain was 12.2%. These numbers showed closed sales were increasing even though more contracts were falling through.

3.) Contract cancellation rate surges

Probably the most troubling trend to emerge in 2011 is that the number of sales contracts that are cancelled before closing has skyrocketed in the last year. The cancellation rate has jumped from 9% in August 2010 to 33% each of the last two months.

Some of the increase can be attributed to the higher level of difficulty in distressed property transactions. However, NAR also says cancellations are caused largely by “declined mortgage applications or failures in loan underwriting from appraised values coming in below the negotiated price.”

4.) Foreclosures were delayed

The robo-signing debacle of late 2010 caused a delay in many foreclosures entering the market. It DID NOT prevent the banks from continuing to put homes into the foreclosure process. The delays jut prevented banks from repossessing the homes and putting then up for sale as REOs (foreclosures owned by the banks).

For most of 2011 the banks and the state governments worked on a set of standards that would be enforced before a bank could repossess the house. They are currently working on a settlement to be paid for those homes that where foreclosed on without the proper paperwork.

As these procedures and settlements are completed, more and more of the backlog of distressed properties will come to market. Distressed properties sell at a discount. They will have a substantial impact on the prices of all houses in the region.

5.) Prices move up then down

 Many experts expected prices to continue to slide downward as we entered 2011. However, a large inventory of distressed properties was held back (see #4). That turned out to be good news for prices as supply decreased throughout the year and demand increased in the second half of the year. That actually caused prices to ‘bottom out’ and ten nudge upward in the late summer and early fall.

As the foreclosed properties again began to enter the market in the last quarter, prices again began to slip. Most believe this downward trend will continue through the first half of 2012.

We spent today looking into the rearview mirror. Tomorrow, will share some of the trends we think we will see in 2012.

 

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Florida Realtors Reporting a Bounce Back!

Leading U. S. economists: Fla.’s housing market bouncing back
ORLANDO, Fla. – Dec. 7, 2011 – Despite national and global headwinds, Florida’s real estate market is entering 2012 on an upward trend, according to three leading U.S. economists.

“Our state is in a mini-recovery,” said Florida Realtors® Chief Economist Dr. John Tuccillo at the state association’s 2012 Real Estate and Economic Forecast Conference in Orlando. “Sales are trending up, listing inventories are falling, the supply of lender-related properties has stabilized, and we are seeing multiple offers on homes in some local markets.”

In fact, Florida homes today may be undervalued, Tuccillo added. “That may seem like a drastic statement,” he said. “But a buyer who plans to own the home for five to seven years can get some great bargains today.”

Mark Vitner, senior economist at Wells Fargo in Charlotte, N.C., said the U.S. economy will continue to face significant challenges, particularly financial concerns related to the European debt crisis. But he expects the U.S. economic recovery will continue next year, making it easier for Midwesterners, for example, to buy Florida homes.

“Florida’s economy is recovering, with tourism and healthcare leading the way,” Vitner said. “International tourism has been particularly strong in Miami and Orlando.”

Looking around the state, Vitner said Jacksonville’s unemployment rate has dropped and home prices are stabilizing. In Orlando, prices have not yet reached bottom, he said, but the winter tourism season should help the regional economy. Tampa and Southwest Florida have seen solid job growth, with little new home construction.

South Florida’s economy is growing thanks to trade relationships with Latin America and the Caribbean, while in the Panhandle, Fort Walton Beach is outperforming Panama City and Pensacola, according to Vitner.

Dr. Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors®, said many Florida markets are showing sharp drops in inventories of homes for sale – a sign that demand is picking up and prices are stabilizing. “That’s a major change from just a year ago,” he said. “Buyers have stepped back into the Florida market.”

Noting the state’s powerful appeal to international buyers, Yun said he was particularly optimistic about the outlook for South Florida. “Don’t be surprised to see a gain in home prices in the Miami and Naples markets in the next 18 months,” he said. “From there, the recovery is likely to roll northward to Central Florida and then North Florida.”

Tuccillo noted that foreclosed and distressed properties will remain a significant part of the Florida market in 2012, but lenders are feeding these properties into the market at a gradual pace rather than pushing them out all at once.

The event also featured a panel of Florida real estate professionals, who discussed the 2012 outlook for several sectors of the state’s real estate market from a practitioner’s point of view. Panelists were Clark Toole, president and COO, Coldwell Banker Residential Real Estate Inc. in Florida, discussing residential real estate; Cynthia Shelton, 2009 president of Florida Realtors and a director at Colliers International in Orlando, discussing the commercial market; and Dean Saunders, accredited land consultant and broker-owner of Coldwell Banker Commercial Saunders Real Estate in Lakeland, covering the market for land and undeveloped property.

Florida Realtors real estate and economic summit was webcast to 32 local association or satellite sites around Florida. “Turnout was high for our statewide event,” said 2011 Florida Realtors President Patricia Fitzgerald, manager/broker-associate with Illustrated Properties in Hobe Sound and Mariner Sands Country Club in Stuart. “We hope to hold more of these forums on a regular basis – sharing knowledge of market trends is a powerful way for our Realtor members to connect with buyers and sellers.”

A PDF of PowerPoint slides used during the 2012 Real Estate and Economic Forecast Conference is available on the floridarealtors.org research page.

© 2011 Florida Realtors®

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