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KCM: Prices: Where They Have Been and Where They Are Headed

Prices: Where They Have Been and Where They Are Headed


Prices: Where They Have Been and Where They Are Headed

Posted: 18 Nov 2011 04:00 AM PST

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KCM: The PRICE Is the Same, But the COST Is Less

The PRICE Is the Same, But the COST Is Less


The PRICE Is the Same, But the COST Is Less

Posted: 16 Nov 2011 04:00 AM PST

There is more and more research coming out showing that it makes great financial sense to purchase a home today . Whether it be rent vs. buy ratios, income-to-price ratios or income-to-mortgage payment ratios, purchasing a home right now is a bargain compared to historic norms. Now we want to look at the COST of a home today compared to pre-peak prices.

According to the most recent S&P Case Shiller price index, residential real estate values have returned to 2003 1Q PRICEs. That, in itself, says something. However, when you factor in mortgage rates, the case for buying a home today becomes even more compelling.

In 2003, 30 year mortgage rates stood at 5.88%. Today, they are 4%. How does that impact the actual COST of a home? On a home purchased for $250,000, here is the difference in monthly cost:

That means you save $285.30 a month, $3,423.60 a year and $102,708 over the life of a 30 year mortgage! You buy the home for the same PRICE but the COST is over $100,000 less.

Bottom Line

This is why so many financial advisors are saying that this may be one of the greatest times in history to purchase a home.

 

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Home prices are inching up!

While Case-Shiller’s report looks at first blush yet another negative, it’s actually a slight .2 percent increase August vs July!

Case-Shiller Records 3.8% Annual Drop in Home Prices

The annual rate of change in home prices continues to show improvement, according to Standard & Poor’s. Data just released by the agency shows the 20-city composite reading of the S&P/Case-Shiller index for August came in below its year-ago level by 3.8 percent. The previous month, S&P reported a 4.1 percent annual decline. The closely watched gauge posted a 0.2 percent increase in August versus July, marking the fifth consecutive monthly gain.

 

 

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KCM: House Prices: Where they will Be in the Spring

The KCM Blog


House Prices: Where They Will Be in the Spring

Posted: 18 Oct 2011 04:00 AM PDT

Disclaimer: This blog covers the national housing market as a whole. Please check with a local real estate professional to discover how the following information will impact your region. – The KCM Crew

Many sellers want to wait until the spring before putting their home on the market. This might be for any of several reasons:

  1. They don’t want to be inconvenienced during the holiday season.
  2. They believe that they will see more potential buyers and as a result will get a higher price.
  3. In the northern part of the country, they might not want people walking through the snow and then into their house.
  4. All of the above

In a normal real estate market, this may make sense. However, this market has been anything but normal. This spring will also see some abnormalities. The biggest difference will be the direction prices will take.

In years past, the spring market would favor the seller because increased demand would outpace any increase in supply: the number of houses coming onto the market would not be as great as the number of buyers newly entering the market. In most situations, when demand is greater than supply, prices increase.

The reason this spring will be different is that the supply of homes coming to the market will be dramatically impacted by foreclosure properties being released by the banks. Many believe this increase in inventory will far outweigh buyer demand. In situations where supply is greater than demand, prices decrease.

Will This Actually Happen?

RealtyTrac, in their latest foreclosure report, explained:

“U.S. foreclosure activity has been mired down  since October of last year, when the robo-signing controversy sparked a flurry  of investigations into lender foreclosure procedures and paperwork. While foreclosure activity in  September and the third quarter continued to register well below levels from a  year ago, there is evidence that this temporary downward trend is about to  change direction, with foreclosure activity slowly beginning to ramp back up.

This will impact prices.

What Do Experts Believe the Impact Will Be?

Here are the pricing projections by several major entities:

  • Zillow believes we will not see a bottom in prices until the first quarter of 2012.
  • Standard & Poors thinks prices will drop %5 in the next few months.
  • JP Morgan Chase believes prices will depreciate 6 to 7% over the next six months.
  •  Barclays says prices will fall 7% by the end of the first quarter of 2012.

Bottom Line

You may pay a hefty price for the convenience of not having your property on the market right now.

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